Will abortion be a major issue in the 2008 election?

Question: Will abortion be a major issue in the 2008 election?

As volatile, divisive, and emotional an issue as abortion is, surprisingly few individuals identify themselves as single-issue voters whose decisions hinge on whether or not a candidate mirrors their own beliefs.

Answer: According to a Gallup poll released May 22, 2008, only 13% of Americans interviewed at that time felt they would vote only for a candidate who shared their views on abortion; for another 49% of American voters, a candidate's position on abortion was just one of several considerations in making their choice. Abortion was not a major issue in choosing a candidate, according to 37% of voters. For the past decade, the percentage of voters who felt strongly that a candidate must agree with them on abortion has remained fairly constant, shifting between the mid-to-high teens. Back in May 2001 the numbers reached a high point, with self-identifying single-issue abortion voters accounting for 20% of American voter.

In its polls over the last decade, Gallup has found that more pro-life voters require a candidate who shares their abortion views than pro-choice voters. Yet as the polling organization reveals, Americans who are pro-life continue to be in the minority:

According to Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, updated May 8-11, Americans as a whole are slightly more likely to call themselves "pro-choice" on abortion than "pro-life," 50% to 44%. This is nearly identical to where Americans stood on the issue a year ago, and is similar to the close division seen since 1998. Prior to that (from about 1995 to 1997) Gallup found a stronger pro-choice tilt.

Even as late as August 22, 2008, a national poll conducted by Republican Majority for Choice, a pro-choice advocacy group with a political action committee, found that nearly 70% of Republican voters did not feel that abortion was a litmus test for any GOP vice presidential nominee. As reported at TheHill.com:

The group...said the poll shows that "the majority of Republicans believe the Party platform on abortion needs to change and demonstrates that a socially moderate Vice Presidential running mate would make the GOP ticket more electable."

Other poll results...show that more than 80 percent of respondents believe the GOP's platform should include a statement that Republicans have divergent views on abortion and that disagreement on the issue should be acceptable.

Poll respondents ranked abortion at the bottom of top priorities for the GOP. Fifty-seven percent of respondents ranked economic issues as the party’s top priority, while...[just] 3 percent answered abortion... Other results from the poll:

• 78 percent of respondents believe a woman should make decisions regarding abortion, not government.
• 66 percent of self-described “pro-life” voters also said abortion should be a woman's choice, not that of government.

When Republican presidential candidate John McCain named Sarah Palin as his choice for vice president on August 29, 2008, the announcement brought a staunchly pro-life candidate into the mix. Her anti-abortion stance is even more extreme than her running mate. McCain has stated he would allow abortion in the case of rape or incest, whereas Palin would support it only if the mother's life were in imminent danger.

Has her appearance on the ticket changed the debate over whether or not abortion will be a major issue in this election?

The actual affect it will have on voters is unclear. But judging from the media frenzy that surrounds her candidacy and the polarizing effect she's had on female voters, Palin's entry into the race served both the pro-choice and pro-life movements.

An email that made the rounds on the internet in September 2008 asked readers to "make a donation to Planned Parenthood in Sarah Palin's name." Planned Parenthood Federation of America stated they had nothing to do with this email and its origin is still unknown, but the furor pro-choice women have felt at Palin's nomination nonetheless translated into unexpected giving. As the Rocky Mountain News reported on September 23, 2008, the Palin donation email resulted in a windfall for local Planned Parenthood groups:

Katie Groke Ellis, field manager for the Planned Parenthood of the Rockies Action Fund, predicted that the five-state chapter of the group alone could draw $100,000 in donations.

Pro-life groups reported that Palin energized their base and a mirror campaign to the Planned Parenthood viral email benefiting anti-abortion foes also circulated on the internet.

_Sources:

Rushing, J. Taylor. "Poll: Abortion not issue in VP pick." TheHill.com, 21 August 2008.
Saad, Lydia. "Abortion Issue Laying Low in 2008 Campaign." Gallup.com, 22 May 2008.
Sealover, Ed. "Planned Parenthood gains from Palin e-mail campaign." RockyMountainNews.com, 23 September 2008.