Eyes Wide Shut - Why Clinton Should Look Hard at Indiana, North Carolina Results
No doubt the Clinton campaign would have liked better margins for her win in Indiana. And the solid double-digit lead Obama secured in North Carolina hurt her as well. So when the going gets tough, the tough re-examine the numbers.
According to today's New York Times, Clinton's team is arguing that Obama needs a higher delegate total than what he currently says will secure his win:
...[H]er aides are asserting that the winner will need 2,209 delegates, not 2,025. That higher number reflects the full inclusion of Florida and Michigan, which held their primaries before the date permitted by the Democratic Party.Old wives tales tell us counting sheep is a sure-fire way to put someone to sleep. Counting delegates, on the other hand, keeps Hillary Clinton's campaign awake, energized, and still alive...for now at least.The goal of the Clinton campaign here is not just to get the delegate votes counted but also to get superdelegates to consider the popular vote Mrs. Clinton won in those two states; in some calculations that would put her over the top. The party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting in Washington at the end of the month to vote on an effort by the Clinton campaign to permit the seating of the delegations.
“We’re going to argue that it’s going to take 2,209 to get to the magic number,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategists. “We’re going to argue that Florida and Michigan need to be seated full-strength.”
Yet as I write this at 4:02 am, even bleary-eyed me can see one thing clearly: Although I'd be tickled pink to have a female president in the White House, this latest argument by Mr. Wolfson is nothing more than a waking fantasy.
After Indiana's lukewarm victory yesterday, Clinton's belief that she still might win indicates that she's dreaming with eyes wide shut.
Photo © Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Comments
Hi, Linda — look at my (politically incorrect) comparison of IN and NC with PA and the rest of the country. I was looking for the state that most closely approximated the rest of the country: black-white balance, income, % poor.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — although analysts seem to ignore this. One of the reasons Obama was expected to win NC was that 1-in-3 voters were black; he has won 9-in-10 blacks in every contest. No other group votes in lockstep like this, except maybe Senate Republicans.
I don’t know if you can take the White House by getting 90% of a 13% minority — but that’s the question super-delegates … and pragmatic Ds … should be asking themselves.
It’s looking like 1972, all over again.